Someone tells you LEGO has beaten the stock market. You see the headline number – an average return of at least 11% a year – and it sounds convincing. Then you try to sell a set, account for postage, storage and the time it takes to find a buyer, and the result looks very different.
Both observations can be true. Selected sealed LEGO sets have appreciated strongly, but that does not make every set a reliable investment or turn an estimated market value into cash. If you want to understand how condition, demand and resale costs affect a real offer, see how Bricko values collectible sets.
So, is LEGO a good investment in 2026? It can be a profitable collectible for informed, patient buyers, but it is illiquid, costly to store and far less predictable than the best headline numbers suggest.
This article provides general information, not personal financial or tax advice.
What the evidence actually shows
The available figures measure different things and should not be treated as interchangeable.
| Source | Reported result | Important limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Dobrynskaya and Kishilova academic study | Average return of at least 11% a year, or about 8% after inflation, in the 1987-2015 sample | A historical portfolio-level estimate ending in 2015; it does not forecast the return of a set bought in 2026 |
| Brickfact retirement study | Median estimated market value was 22.3% higher after 12 months and 41.0% higher after 24 months | Estimated sealed-set values, not realised sale proceeds; purchase price, fees, storage, inflation and tax were excluded |
| Brick by Brick 2026 review | Across 454 sets retired from 2022 to 2025, the median estimated value was 1.23 times US list price; 69% were above list and 9% had doubled | A snapshot against US list price, with different holding periods; it is not an annual return calculation |
The peer-reviewed study, LEGO: The Toy of Smart Investors, analysed a long historical period when the collector market was different. Its 11% figure is real within that sample, but it is not a promise that a randomly selected modern set will earn 11% each year.
More recent studies also show wide variation. Brickfact reported that 18.8% of qualifying sets had no positive estimated-value change after 12 months, while the 2022 retirement cohort had a negative median at that point. The Brickfact study explicitly warns that retirement alone does not create demand or guarantee a buyer.
The Brick by Brick dataset tells a similar story: many sets were estimated above list price, but only a small minority had doubled. Because it compares current estimates with US list prices rather than each owner’s actual purchase and sale prices, it cannot tell you what an Australian seller will keep.
Key takeaway: Historical LEGO returns can be strong, but current estimates vary widely by set and do not include the costs required to turn a boxed set into cash.
Gross value is not your net return
A price guide or sold listing gives you a gross figure. Your net return starts with your actual purchase price and subtracts every cost involved in holding and selling the set.
Marketplace costs. The original 12.7% eBay figure was a United States store fee and does not describe the current Australian casual-seller rules. As at 16 October 2026, eligible Australia-based sellers without a Pro plan and with no more than A$25,000 in eBay sales over the previous 12 months can qualify for free selling. Optional upgrades, overseas delivery, seller-performance charges and Pro-plan fees may still apply. Check the current eBay Australia fee page for your account.
Shipping and packaging. Large boxes are expensive to protect and send. Packaging, tracking, insurance, returns and damage risk can consume a substantial part of a small price increase.
Storage and condition. Sealed boxes need dry, dark, temperature-stable storage without crushing or sunlight. The space has a cost, even when it is a room in your home. Box damage can also reduce the premium paid by sealed-set collectors.
Time and opportunity cost. Researching, photographing, listing, answering questions and waiting for the right buyer all take time. Money tied up in stock also earns no interest or dividends while the set sits on a shelf.
Use this calculation for each set:
Net profit = sale proceeds – purchase price – platform costs – postage and packaging – storage – insurance – tax – other selling expenses.
The risks LEGO investors can underestimate
Liquidity risk. A listed share can usually be sold quickly during market hours. A retired LEGO set may wait weeks or months for a buyer at the price you want. A fast sale often requires a discount.
Condition risk. Sealed, complete and well-preserved sets generally attract the broadest collector interest, but “sealed” does not guarantee a gain. Opened complete sets can still have value, although their market and pricing are different.
Demand and remake risk. Retirement reduces new supply, but weak demand, changing tastes or a redesigned re-release can limit the resale premium. A famous licence does not remove this risk.
Concentration risk. Buying several sets from one theme is not the same as diversifying across asset classes. ASIC’s Moneysmart diversification guidance explains that spreading money across different investments can reduce the effect of one investment performing poorly.
Data-quality risk. Many LEGO price tools publish modelled market values rather than audited net sale proceeds. Check completed sales, sample dates, condition assumptions and currencies before relying on a percentage.
Who LEGO investing may suit
LEGO is most suitable when collecting comes first and potential appreciation comes second. If you would still be happy to own the set when its price is flat, you are less likely to make a rushed decision based only on a forecast.
It may suit patient buyers who:
- buy below retail rather than assuming list price is a bargain
- can hold for several years without needing the money back
- have suitable storage space
- understand completed-sale data and selling costs
- limit the amount committed to one theme, set or collectible market
It is a poor fit if you are borrowing to buy, need a predictable return, lack secure storage or expect the historical 11% average to appear automatically. Moneysmart describes borrowing to invest as a high-risk strategy because debt magnifies losses as well as gains.
How to assess a specific LEGO set
Before buying a set for resale, answer six questions:
- What is the real purchase price? Include delivery and compare it with genuine retailer discounts.
- Is retirement confirmed? Treat third-party retirement calendars as estimates until the product is actually discontinued.
- Is there durable demand? Look for an established collector audience rather than short-term social-media attention.
- What do completed sales show? Compare recent sales in the same condition and currency, not asking prices.
- What will the exit cost? Estimate packaging, postage, platform charges, insurance, tax and the time required to sell.
- What happens if the price stays flat? Decide whether you can keep the set, sell at a discount or accept a loss.
If you already own valuable sealed or retired sets and want an alternative to listing them yourself, you can request a direct collection assessment from Bricko. A direct offer trades some potential retail upside for speed and lower selling effort.
Australian tax and record keeping
Tax treatment depends on why you acquired the sets and how you conduct the activity. LEGO kept mainly for personal enjoyment can be treated differently from stock purchased for resale or assets held with a profit-making purpose. Do not assume that every item marketed as a “collectible” automatically fits the tax law’s specific collectables category.
Keep records of purchase dates, costs, shipping, storage, marketplace charges and sale proceeds. Review the Australian Taxation Office guidance on CGT assets and exemptions, and obtain Australian tax advice if you buy regularly for resale or the amounts are substantial.
The takeaway
Is LEGO a good investment in 2026? Sometimes – but not as a predictable replacement for savings, shares or a diversified investment portfolio.
The strongest historical research shows attractive average returns across a long past sample. Recent datasets show that some retired sets rise substantially, while others remain near list price or fail to gain. None of those headline figures automatically becomes your return after purchase price, storage, selling costs and tax.
Treat each set as an individual collectible. Buy selectively, verify the data, protect the condition and calculate a realistic exit before spending the money. If the decision only works when every optimistic assumption comes true, it is not a sound investment case.